← AK Grand Crusader's Championship GCC
Fire ExiaTier 2
at AK Grand Crusader's Championship GCC
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.3% | 9 | 3-2-4 | 55.6% | 53.8% | 51.8% | +0.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.0% | 5 | 1-2-2 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 38.2% | -6.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.5% | -4.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.4% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 54.6% | +2.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.7% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +2.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.1% | +5.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.9% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.5% | -2.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 48.0% | -1.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.3% | +7.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.9% | -1.1 |
| Fire Suited | 2.1% | 4 | 0-2-2 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 38.6% | -7.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.7% | +6.4 |
| Water Allies | 1.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.3% | +13.8 |
| Water Fractal | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.8% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 58.4% | +6.3 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Slimes | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +2.6 |
| Water Genbu | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.3 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 34 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exia Sight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Proof of Life | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crimson Prescience | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Relentless Outburst | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Annihilation | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Stolen Chance | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bloodshroud Temper | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blazing Lunge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Sunder | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |